Soybeans

Monday’s Recap
Nov Soybean futures ended at a one month high of 1060’4 Monday, higher by 5’6. Across all maturities, volume was a heavy 424,916, with the Nov contract seeing 125,189 traded. Total open interest rose by 1,588 (0.19%) to 855,598. Nov gained 16,827, or 5.85%, finishing at 304,464.

Technicals
Soybeans punched higher yesterday, tagging trendline resistance, the origin of which dates back to September. Yesterday was the fourth test (and so far failure) against it. A breakout above that and our resistance pocket from 1078 3/4-1082 could spark a quick move towards $11.00. A failure to keep the momentum going could lead to a pullback to the 20-day moving average, 1054 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1078 3/4-1082***, 1098 3/4-1104 3/4****
Pivot: 1067 3/4-1073 1/4
Support: 1053-1056 3/4***, 1030-1033***

Popular Options
Option volumes were largest for the July 1100 call (3,771) and the Nov 900 put (4,481). Options with the highest open interest are the Nov 1200 call with 25,979, and the July 1050 put with 19,155.

Volatility Update

Soybean implied volatility was even (SVL) to end the session at 19.12, a one month high. The 30-day historical volatility closed the day dropping 0.45% to 15.03%. The SVL Skew was unchanged, even on the day 0.0 to end at 4.18, a twelve year high.

Headlines
Soybean planting progress and conditions came in slightly below average estimates, but were within the expected range. Unlike corn, soybean ratings declined this week. Extreme moisture in Kentucky has left the state with just 75% planted, compared to the 5-year average of 84% planted for the same week. Once again, Iowa leads the pack with a net rating of 80% (good to Excellent).
The U.S. soybean crush in May was lighter than most trade estimates but still reached the highest-ever total for the fifth month of the year, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 192.829 million bushels of the oilseed last month, up 1.4% from the April crush of 190.226 million bushels and up 5.0% from the May 2024 crush of 183.625 million bushels. It was the largest May crush ever and the eighth-largest for any month on record, NOPA data showed.

Export Inspections: 215,803 MT. This was within the range of expectations, but at the lower end of it and below last week’s 547k.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 6.16.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for November soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 17k futures and options contracts.

Check out our Crop Progress snapshot and the charts to this article Here!: https://bluelinefutures.com/2025/06/17/elementor-30076/

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