Excitement in the Grain Markets

Corn
Thursday’s Recap
Corn futures were higher Thursday with the May contract finishing the session at 464’0, up by 8’2, or 1.81%, over a sizable trading range. Across all maturities, a heavy 649,283 contracts changed hands, with 313,858 traded in the May maturity. Overall open interest decreased by 195 (0.0106%) to 1,835,602. May fell by 16,861, or 2.18%, finishing at 756,627.
Technicals
Corn futures were able to keep the momentum going yesterday, clearing our first resistance hurdle from 461-463 3/4 which opened the door for a swift move towards our next pocket which we outlined yesterday as 471 3/4-472 3/4. The market stalled out near this pocket which has brough prices back to the 461-463 3/4 pocket. The Bulls will want to see this pocket defended to keep the hopes of a bigger relief rally alive. Our bias in the near term is pretty neutral as we see the average daily range over the last 14 days of nearly 12 cents presenting a lot of setups on both sides of the market, truly a trader’s market. Talking with clients we’ve emphasized the importance of capitalizing on moves, because even good positions are only one unpredictable headline away from turning into a bad position.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 472 3/4-473 1/2***, 480-484***
Pivot: 461-463 3/4
Support: 454 1/2-457 3/4***, 442 1/4-443 3/4****
Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the July 480 call (4,822) and the May 440 put (5,719). Calls with the most open interest are the July 500 strike (33,400), and for the puts are the July 450 strike (19,219).
Volatility Update
Corn implied volatility ended sharply lower as CVL lost 1.2 to finish at 24.91. The 30-day historical volatility finished higher by 0.65% to a one month high of 24.32%. The CVL Skew was moderately higher, up by 0.34 to end the day at 2.05, a one week high.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 3.3.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
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