I am going to be milking all the philosophy I can out of the recent picture ofMessier 87. A black hole has been photographed. Two event horizons and an unfathomably dense singularity are all contained in a single image. This concretization of what was nothing more than a theory to 100% of the people on earth one week ago, is now confirmed to exist by our own sense of sight. This is really an incredible moment in time. Please bear with me as I start to wrap my own mind around it.
Metaphysically, M87 confirms the fundamental primacy of physical reality in a very concrete way. Multiverse Theory and Simulation Theory have been popular recently but get killed here. You cannot have an infinite number of event horizons because they would all start touching at some point. I also dont believe that anyone could simulate a singularity. I just dont accept that. Call me crazy if you want, but I believe an infinitely dense mass is just that: An infinitely dense mass. I am going to run with the theory that an existents nature is its nature; that A is A as Aristotle identified. A thing iswhat a thing is, according to John Galt.
What other theorie s could fall, based on that concept of Reality being what it is? I would seek to apply it to monetary theory. This idea that it doesnt matter if the currency we use every day is nothing more than debtour debtcreated with a few key strokes on a computer seems very tenuous in this new light. We now know what the most powerful object in the universe looks like. Shouldnt we know what our money looks like? You may not agree but, as much as I am impressed with this whole black hole photo, money is still more important to me. So, I would like to know what my money looks like. I bet it is pretty.
Which brings us to platinum. I think the chart looks pretty right now. It carved out a low in the $750 area are over the last year and then made a very convincing run to $920 per ounce through the first quarter of 2019. In recent trading sessions,, it has been settling back into an orbit just below that big round $900 number, taking a break that could easily be stepping back to jump better.
It makes sense that the forces moving the price of copper and nickel and all the industrial metals higher should eventually reach platinum. After all, it is used in the production of one-fifth of all manufactured objects in the world, and evidence strongly suggesta humanity is going to be manufacturing a lot more objects over the coming decade. The Technological Singularity is upon us and it needs a lot of platinum. You could say the metals make up the core of the physical core of an exponentially accelerating economy.
Anyone who know me knows that I have big focus on the monetary aspect of metals, as well. Throughout the epochal bull market in commodities of the 2000s, I would often talk about gold and silver and get blank stares from my audience. But when I brought up platinum, people were suddenly interested. My personal theory is the connection to high quality engagement rings platinum carries causes this reaction. Whatever it is, it definitely allows me to talk about monetary metals more easily. That in itself is a tremendous value. Perhaps a bull market in Americas favorite monetary metal and a renewed focus on physicality that I strongly suspect this new picture of M87 will drive could bring that important debate back to the light of day.
Whatever happens amongst all this speculation, please remember to keep your initial stop rational. This is really the most important thing. The first stop loss is the Singularity of Trading (which is the most purely mental pursuit in the universe) if you will. It is the first principle around which all others orbit and all decisions should be based upon. If you decide to buy platinum futures, stay with the liquid quarterly contract (currently July) and place a stop at a price where the bullish hypothesis is proven wrong. To me, that is about $100 south of here, just below $800 per ounce. Call it $772. On the 50 ounce CME contact, that represents a risk of about $6000 per contract. But I would certainly think an expectation of a profit three times that to the upside would be reasonable over the next 18 months or so. You could almost say it feels inevitable, like it is being pulled along by some unseen force to a final, unavoidable outcome. I love trades like that.