AgriCharts Market Commentary


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Corn Pressured by Wheat at Midday

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 1/4 cents lower in most contracts on Monday. Losses in the wheat complex are pressuring the market lower. Weekly data from USDA showed 1.353 MMT of corn shipped in the week of April 18. That was 14.33% larger wk/wk but still 22.15% below the same week last year. The large managed money spec funds added 35,783 contracts to their record CFTC net short position in the week ending April 16. That put them at a record 307,529 contracts net short. Trade ideas for corn planting progress are running 6-8% vs. the 5 year average of 12%. Better activity was being noted on Saturday and Sunday as fields dried out in some areas.

May 19 Corn is at $3.56 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.65 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.72 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.84 1/4, down 2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Down on Monday, Pressured by Weak Exports

Soybean futures are fractionally to 1 1/2 cents lower in most contracts at midday. Meal futures are down 30 cents/ton, with May soy oil up 2 points. This morning’s Export Inspections report indicated 382,298 MT of soybeans shipped in the week that ended on 4/18. That was 19.73% lower than last week and 19.07% below a year ago. Just one cargo of 67,113 MT was destined for China. The CFTC spec fund net short rose to 91,400 contracts as of 4/16. That was an increase of 13,188 contracts for the week. USDA will begin reporting US soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report, with estimates running 2% complete.

May 19 Soybeans are at $8.79 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.93 1/4, down 1 cent,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.99, down 1 cent,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.03 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal is at $302.90, down $0.30

May 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.82, up $0.02

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Lower on Rain Forecasts in the Southern Plains

Wheat futures are posting 5 to 10 1/2 cent losses on Monday. KC and MPLS are posting new contract lows. The 7-day QPF shows heavy rainfall in parts of TX and OK over the next week. Parts of KS, CO and NE saw rains last night into this morning. USDA will release their weekly Crop Progress report this afternoon, with spring wheat planting progress seen at around 7% by trade estimates. Winter wheat conditions are expected to be steady (60% gd/ex) from last week, with estimates ranging from 58%-61%. CFTC released Commitment of Traders data on Friday afternoon. As of 4/16 COB, spec funds were net short 63,076 contracts in Chicago SRW futures & options. That was 8,808 more net short than the previous week. They extended their net short position in KC wheat futures and options by 6,502 contracts to a record 54,295 contracts net short.

May 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.36 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.11 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.12 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Down Triple Digits Following Thursday’s COF Report

Live cattle futures are showing $1.10 to $1.40 losses at midday, with April 20 cents lower. This is fallout from the Cattle on Feed report. Feeder cattle futures are $1.10 to $2.475 lower on Monday. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.43 to $145.01. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday. Choice boxes were up 98 cents at $234.63, with Select boxes $1.46 higher @ $221.95. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 638,000 head including Saturday. That would match the previous week and be 11,000 head above the same week a year ago. Cash cattle traded $130.20 in the north on Friday. The monthly USDA Cattle on Feed report showed the largest April 1 On Feed since the reporting series began in 1996. Numbers were up 2% from 2018, with March placements 4.8% larger than the same month a year ago. The Commitment of Traders report released over the weekend showed the large spec funds adding to their record bullish position in cattle by 3,693 contracts last week. That put them net long 152,634 contracts.

Apr 19 Cattle are at $128.325, down $0.200,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $121.275, down $1.400,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $118.425, down $1.325,

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $150.425, down $1.100

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $159.200, down $1.475

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $160.250, down $1.825

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Lower on Profit Taking

Lean Hog futures are down 70 cents to $2.125 on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 39 cents from the previous day @ $81.02 on April 18. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 46 cents in the Monday morning report, at $87.70. The picnic and belly primals were reported lower. The national average base hog was $78.73, up down a sharp $2.21. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 2.380 million head through Saturday, down 4,000 from the previous week and 41,000 below last year due to smaller Friday and Saturday kills. China confirmed ASF cases on Hainan Island, which is more than 200 miles offshore and had been thought to be relatively safe.

May 19 Hogs are at $89.500, down $0.700,

Jun 19 Hogs are at $94.900, down $1.850

Jul 19 Hogs are at $98.900, down $1.650

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Mostly Higher, With Help from Outside Markets

Cotton futures are trading 3 to 25 points higher in most front months, with May down 2 points. The dollar is weaker this morning, with crude oil up $1.84/barrel, supporting cotton via synthetics. The large spec funds reduced their CFTC net long position in cotton by 3,186 contracts in the week ending April 16. The funds were still net long 11,467 contracts of futures and options on that date. The Cotlook A Index was up 50 points at 88.25 on April 18. The new weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 68.88, effective through Thursday.

May 19 Cotton is at 77.29, down 2 points,

Jul 19 Cotton is at 78.52, up 25 points

Oct 19 Cotton is at 77.26, up 3 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 77.240, up 19 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.
Omaha, NE 68022
P: 402-697-3623
F: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com